In a season marked by unexpected struggles, Manchester City find themselves in unfamiliar territory. The reigning Premier League champions, known for their dominance under Pep Guardiola, are grappling with a significant dip in form that has sent shockwaves through the football world. As of December 2024, City sit fifth in the Premier League and face an early exit from the Champions League with only two fixtures remaining, prompting intense scrutiny and speculation about the causes of their decline and Guardiola's plans to right the ship.
The Extent of the Crisis
The statistics paint a stark picture of City's struggles. The team has won only once in their last 11 matches across all competitions, marking the worst slide in Guardiola's illustrious coaching career. This poor run includes a particularly painful defeat in the Manchester Derby, where City conceded twice in the final minutes, further damaging their league position.
In the Premier League, City have played 16 matches, winning eight, drawing three, and losing five, accumulating 27 points. Their Champions League campaign has been equally disappointing, with the team placed 22nd in the standings, having won only two of their six matches, the other's ending in two losses (4-1 Sporting & 2-0 Juventus) and two draws (3-3 Feyenoord & 0-0 Inter Milan).
Identifying the Root Causes
Injuries and Squad Depth
Injuries have played a significant role in City's downturn. Key players such as Kevin De Bruyne, Phil Foden, Kyle Walker, Jack Grealish, and Jeremy Doku have all faced injury setbacks, weakening the squad considerably. The absence of defensive stalwarts like John Stones, Ruben Dias, Manuel Akanji, and Nathan Ake has disrupted Guardiola's defensive plans, affecting both the team's defensive solidity and attacking fluidity.
Tactical Vulnerabilities
City's tactical approach, once lauded for its precision and effectiveness, has shown cracks. Issues such as poor box defending, a lack of focus on the backline, and an inefficient high press have been highlighted as significant problems. The team has been particularly vulnerable to crosses, conceding the joint-most goals from back-post crosses in the league. This defensive frailty is further evidenced by City having the lowest success rate for aerial duels in the defensive third since the start of the 2018-19 season.
Statistical Anomalies
For the first time under Guardiola, City are experiencing an expected goals (xG) deficit, meaning they are conceding better chances than they create. This stark contrast to their usual high standards underscores the depth of their current crisis.
Guardiola's Response and Future Plans
Faced with these challenges, Guardiola is not standing idle. He has acknowledged the team's struggles and is actively working on solutions.
Squad Overhaul and Transfer Plans
Reports suggest that Guardiola is planning a significant squad overhaul, with four players potentially leaving the club, including Matheus Nunes, Jack Grealish, Kyle Walker, and James McAtee. In terms of reinforcements, Guardiola has expressed a desire for new signings, particularly in midfield. Targets such as Bruno Guimaraes, Florian Wirtz, Adam Wharton, and Martin Zubimendi are reportedly on the radar, with Jamal Musiala described as Guardiola's "dream" signing.
Tactical Adjustments
Guardiola has hinted at possible tactical changes to address the team's vulnerabilities. He's considering playing players in unfamiliar positions, such as using a winger as a full-back, to cope with the current squad's limitations. This flexibility is seen as necessary given the injuries to key players and the need to shore up defensive weaknesses.
Psychological Approach
In recent press conferences, Guardiola has emphasised the importance of maintaining a positive mindset and focusing on the basics. He believes in the quality of his players and the club and is determined to guide them through this difficult period by reinforcing their confidence and commitment.
Expert Opinions and Analysis
Sports analysts and pundits have offered various perspectives on City's situation. Some argue that while the results have been poor, the underlying data suggests City are still creating opportunities, indicating that the slump might not be as dire as it appears. Others draw parallels to past challenges faced by top teams, suggesting that City's decline might be part of a natural cycle in football.
However, there's also speculation about whether Guardiola's long tenure at City might be contributing to the team's struggles. After nine seasons, some experts suggest that the relationship between Guardiola and his players may have grown stale, potentially affecting team morale and performance.
Looking Ahead
Despite the current challenges, there's a belief among some pundits that City has the potential to recover. The team's high xG and the quality of their squad provide a foundation for improvement, provided they can address their defensive vulnerabilities and regain confidence.
Guardiola himself remains committed to the cause, having recently signed a new two-year contract. He stated that he would only consider leaving if he felt he had lost the team's support or if they were not following his guidance.
Conclusion
Manchester City's current crisis presents perhaps the biggest challenge of Pep Guardiola's managerial career. The coming months will be crucial as he seeks to implement changes, both in personnel and tactics, to restore the team's competitive edge. With the January transfer window approaching and half the season still to play, there's ample opportunity for City to turn their fortunes around. However, the pressure is mounting, and the football world will be watching closely to see if Guardiola can once again work his magic and return Manchester City to the pinnacle of English and European football.