Bayern Munich: Between Guardiola's Dominance and Kompany's Defensive Disasters

Bayern Munich has made an impressive start to the current season, sitting at the top of the Bundesliga table with 14 points after six rounds.

While their attacking strength and dominance in matches, reminiscent of Pep Guardiola’s era, are evident under Belgian coach Vincent Kompany, Bayern’s defensive weaknesses, especially against stronger teams, have become more apparent.

With a heavily packed midfield, Bayern has numerous passing options, enabling them to keep possession and control the game. Their possession rate stands at 66% per match, the highest in the Bundesliga, and they also lead in accurate passes with a success rate of 91%, according to Bundesliga’s official stats.

When they lose the ball, Bayern applies high pressing from the front to quickly recover it, particularly when the opposition tries to build up play from the back. This constant pressing creates more chances for Bayern, as they often regain the ball near the opponent’s goal, minimizing the distance to score.

As a result, Bayern has had 113 attempts on goal in their first six matches, second only to the defending champions, Bayer Leverkusen. Their expected goals (xG) value stands at 14.3, the third-highest in the Bundesliga, and they have already scored 20 goals.

A week without victory

Despite a promising start to the season, Bayern’s fans are not completely satisfied after recent draws with Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt, and a defeat by Aston Villa in the Champions League.

Bayern’s attractive playing style comes at a cost. Their dense midfield often leaves gaps on the wings, and with their advanced defensive line, this exposes Bayern to defensive issues. The space behind the center-back pairing of Dayot Upamecano and Kim Min-jae is significant, and even with their speed, they struggle to cover it. Manuel Neuer frequently rushes off his line to deal with counterattacks.

When facing teams with skilled ball-playing defenders, Bayern's high press can be bypassed. The situation worsens when the opponents possess speed and finishing ability, as seen with Frankfurt's Omar Marmoush. Bayern struggles to defend against quick counterattacks.

Effectiveness

Bayern has conceded seven goals in their first six Bundesliga matches, keeping only two clean sheets. They have also let in three goals in their opening two Champions League matches.

Over the past 16 years, Bayern’s average goals conceded in the league rarely exceeded one per match in the first six rounds, except in the 2020-2021 season, where they conceded nine goals.

This season, Bayern has allowed only 32 shots against them, significantly better than the next best team in the league (59). However, they concede a goal for every four or five shots faced. Neuer’s save rate is low this season, at just 46%, indicating he has stopped less than half of the shots he has faced.

The solution

Joshua Kimmich and Aleksandar Pavlovic dominate the midfield, helping Bayern control possession. However, neither excels at ball interceptions. The solution for better balance lies in bringing on Joao Palhinha.

With Palhinha in the lineup, Kimmich could drop to right-back and Raphael Guerreiro to left-back, forming a 4-3-3 formation. However, this would require sacrificing one of Serge Gnabry, Michael Oliseh, or Jamal Musiala from the attacking front.