Manchester City is seen as the front-runner to win the English Premier League for a record-breaking fourth time, according to sports statistics expert Opta.
Based on 10,000 simulations, Opta‘s number of analysts forecasted each Premier League team’s final rankings at the conclusion of the 2023–2024 season, taking performance and remaining games into account.
For Burnley, the projections sound depressing and worrying, but they look hopeful for Coach Pep Guardiola‘s squad.
Based on Opta‘s research, City‘s chances of winning the title have increased to 84.6%. Arsenal, the runners-up from the previous season, is at 5.6%, while Liverpool only managed to secure 9.1%.
According to Opta, Tottenham Hotspur‘s title chances are essentially non-existent at 0.3%, a percentage shared with Aston Villa.
Manchester United, now in sixth place, is expected to finish seventh, with a small 5.9% probability of finishing in the top four, despite a recent minor improvement in that percentage.
Chelsea is predicted to finish in ninth place, and Newcastle United has a 25% chance of placing in the top four for the second straight year.
The three lowest-ranking teams in the standings—the same teams that were promoted to the Premier League this season—are likewise expected to be relegated, according to Opta‘s projections. At the moment, Burnley‘s chances of being relegated are 86.9%.
After twelve games last season, City has one fewer point in the league than they did.