Manchester City have improved their squad depth this window, but have not made a game-changing move in central defense.
Manchester City finished a whopping 18 points below champions Liverpool in last season’s Premier League. That extraordinary number may be chalked up to defensive injuries coupled with a historic season for Liverpool, but the fact of the matter is that City entered this transfer summer needing to close the gap, not simply rest on their laurels.
Nathan Aké is a very good signing who will prevent another man-overboard calamity if Aymeric Laporte gets injured again and Ferran Torres has the potential to be an absolute star, but City have once again failed to address the root cause of last season’s failure: they still have not replaced Vincent Kompany.
Again, Aké is an upgrade on current options, but he is not a world-class defender who will have a Virgil Van Dijk-style impact on the City backline, the key weakness in the team. City have made no secret of their interest in Kalidou Koulibaly, but I have been skeptical that he will ever actually hold up a City shirt for over a month now. With the season starting in just two days for the rest of the Premier League, it is time to evaluate this City team as it stands today.
City will not finish 18 points below Liverpool again. That outcome required a tremendous amount of bad luck and poor results for City, and regression to the mean for both sides is likely. However, even a significant shift on both sides will still not guarantee City the title.
As the squad stands today, I do not believe they are capable of winning the Premier League. Media and fans will naturally expect City to shoot right back into the title race, and while I do agree that it will be much closer, City are still not strong enough at the back to match their rivals. I believe we will see an uptick in performance from Guardiola’s side, however, as City will move from 81 points last season to somewhere between 85 and 87.
Moreover, I believe Liverpool will not be as dominant as they were last season, but will still narrowly clear 90 points and hit 92 at most. At best for City, I see a narrow three-point loss coming down to the final day, but at worst, a relatively comfortable seven-point title win for the Reds.
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If City bring in a top-class defender like Koulibaly, this can change. However, contrary to popular opinion, I believe this team without him will simply let in too many goals to clear 90 points again, and that the warning signs of last season will show themselves. The race will be closer, but 18 points is not just a gap, but a canyon.
In addition, I simply view this as the most likely outcome. If Aké or another Laporte partner shines as John Stones and Kompany once did or Liverpool seriously drop off more than expected, City could still get the job done. However, as we sit today, expectations must be based off what we have seen recently and not conjecture of what could be. Therefore, City must do whatever is necessary, especially after the Angeliño deal, to get Koulibaly into this team and show real ambition.