Why Tiki-Taka cannot win the Champions League in the modern game

Despite incredible domestic success at every stop since he departed Barcelona, Pep Guardiola has not won the Champions League since 2011—and with three quarterfinal exits on the trot at Manchester City, he is regressing in Europe’s biggest competition.

Following Manchester City’s latest Champions League collapse, this time against Lyon at the quarterfinal stage, questions have been rightly asked of manager Pep Guardiola. While most of the immediate focus has fallen upon his overly defensive five at the back formation that absolutely stifled City’s attack in the first half, one must take a step back and realize that this is not an event in isolation, but the result of a trend.

Fans have questioned why Guardiola is “overthinking” and going very defensive rather than having his team impose their will on the opposition. The two prime examples come in City’s 1-0 first leg defeat away to Spurs last season and the Lyon match today, both matches in which City conceded, failing the basic goal of the system, while also seriously hampering the team’s ability to score.

However, Guardiola is not stupid, and I therefore believe he is overreacting and overcorrecting for his European mistakes in the past. When he went all-out to simply outscore the opposition in his first two years at City, his team was horribly exposed in a 6-6 away goal defeat to Monaco and fell in a 3-0 first-leg hole against Liverpool that could not be salvaged. The defensive-mindedness is the result of those defeats along with his numerous semi-final failures while in charge of Bayern Munich, and I believe it is a reflection on the state of his main system, tiki-taka, and why the modern game has learned how to beat it in knockout-style ties. Guardiola’s tactics appear caught between two minds: there is too much fear to play normally knowing the susceptibility to counter-attacks, but attempting to shell up defensively takes the team out of rhythm, and mixing the two often leads to disastrous results.

Possession-based football was a revolution Guardiola pioneered 10 years ago because it completely swam against the conventions of football at the time. Few, if any managers had an answer for it, and could not score for the simple fact that they did not have the ball. Now, the current has turned in the complete opposite way, but Guardiola has remained stagnant. Every manager promises “free-flowing, attacking football” attempting to emulate City’s style, but empirical evidence shows that more and more teams are capable of coping with the pressure.

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The state of the game has completely changed, and while Guardiola does not play exactly as he once did, the core tenets of tiki-taka remain at Manchester City, and it is a system designed to beat 2010’s elite, not 2020’s. City’s Achilles heel in the Champions League has always been defense, and while this has always been chalked up to individual mistakes, perhaps the real issue is that defenders are being put in dangerous situations that dramatically increase the likelihood of a mistake.

For example, City’s fullbacks and attacking midfielders operate so far up the pitch that if the team are dispossessed and the press is beaten, the opposition have a near certain chance as they will in all likelihood face just three sky blue shirts with the opportunity to defend them: two center backs and a defensive midfielder. Moreover, possession-based football actively encourages the opposition to sit deep, meaning City are making it harder for themselves, as they must beat all 10 of the outfield players in a low block to score, while the opponent only needs to beat three City players on the break.

While over the course of a league season City are simply too good to face real issues, in a Champions League knockout tie it has been proven that inferior teams can get results by exploiting City’s vulnerability. All of the recent winners of the Champions League, as well as current favorites Bayern Munich, have a few qualities in common, and if Guardiola can adapt, he can once again revolutionize football.

First and foremost, Liverpool, the three-time consecutive winners Real Madrid, and Bayern all had organized defenses with a physical presence at center back that keep their shape and defend in numbers. Balance between defense and attack is the main priority, not hitting some possession number.

All three teams pressed aggressively, but still maintained stability and shape, and were deadly on the break, with pace, skill, and clinical finishing the top priorities at the forward positions. All of these teams were willing to allow the opposition to hold the ball, allowing them to creep forward and lose their shape, before winning the ball back quickly and having a creative player spark a devastating counter and letting the quality of their attacking stars shine in good situations. Managers Zinedine Zidane, Jürgen Klopp, and Hansi Flick deal in efficiency and results, and if attractive football comes with it, excellent. But winning at all costs always comes before style.

Possession may create more chances, but they are undoubtedly of a lower quality, while solidity and devastating breaks create higher quality chances that clinical finishers will bury. City have lost in the Champions League because they do not have the steel in defense and midfield, and that results in part from the intricacy, finesse, and expectation of perfection from Guardiola’s system.

If it isn’t a 5-0 win with an early goal, City are in serious trouble of losing, and every game cannot be a 5-0 win. If Guardiola and City are to win the Champions League, perhaps it is time to realize that it cannot be all finesse and perfection, but strong mentality and balance. The definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over and expecting different results. While it’s unlikely that Guardiola will change his approach and the current squad of players are not fit for a fast build-up and stable team, it could just be the key to getting City over the line.