A statistical look at Man City’s 2019/20: What’s different?

Although Manchester City’s start to the Premier League season has not been ideal, the statistical comparison to the title-winning sides of the last two seasons tells a unique story. Note: All stats are courtesy of Whoscored.com and FBref.com.

While the use of advanced metrics in football is incapable of telling the entire story of a match, they do provide interesting context that compliments what supporters and pundits alike observe over the course of the season. In Manchester City’s case so far over the course of the 2019/20 season, it has been an up-and-down start.

An interesting trend is that City’s possession this season is down to 61%, from 64% a year ago and even further from 66.4% during the 100-point campaign of 2017-18. In manager Pep Guardiola’s possession-based system, this dip has correlated with less points each season (although City were just a mere two points worse last season than their record-breaking 17/18).

However, in attack, the argument can be made that City are better than ever. The Blues’ expected goals (golden chances created that should be scored) is at just over three xG per game, meaning that over the course of the season, City are on pace for 116.38 xG, massively up from 82.6 a year ago and 83.5 before that. For the sake of comparison, Liverpool are averaging just 1.94 xG per match, yet have an eight-point lead atop the table. While I concede that City’s number is heavily inflated due to the 8-0 result over Watford, it still remains a positive sign that there are goals in this team.

Shots per game is also at an all-time high with 21, up from 18 a year ago and 17.5 before that. However, perhaps the most interesting statistical angle comes on the defensive side. Conceding nine goals in eight games has come as a massive shock to City supporters, with a defense that appears to be among the worst in the league to the naked eye. However, the stats tell a different story.

The Citizens are allowing 1.19 expected goals (xGA) against per match, good for the league’s seventh-best defense. Furthermore, they allow just 6.9 shots against per game, easily the best mark in the Premier League. Given these stats and the hefty lead over Liverpool in nearly every attacking measure, a case can be made that City have been extremely unfortunate to trail the Reds by eight points through the season’s first eight games.

However, it is obvious that the team has defensive issues, which is best encapsulated by the fact that City’s xGA per shot is 0.17, meaning almost one in every five shots the Blues give up is a golden chance for the opposition that should be scored. This stat effectively quantifies how much danger City are in nearly every time they lose possession of the ball. Last season, City gave up just 25.2 xGA all season, easily the best mark in the league, which speaks to the importance of Aymeric Laporte at the heart of central defense.

Therefore, while there are worrying signs at the back, the stats show that this City team’s attack will be enough to allow them to continue to compete on all four fronts. With the emergence of Kevin de Bruyne as arguably the Premier League’s best player this season and one of the best managers in the world in Guardiola, City remain a force both domestically and in Europe. Moreover, when Laporte returns in January, before the start of the Champions League knockout phase, the defensive issues could be remedied, giving the Blues all the firepower required to bring home the first Champions League title in club history.