All things considered, Manchester City should win the Premier League Title from here.
Given what both teams have remaining of their schedules, Manchester City should win the Premier League title from here.
City just weathered their toughest stretch of games of the season by winning them all. If City were going to drop points, those were the best opportunities to do so.
Even taking into consideration the possible challenges each of their remaining games pose, they should be winning all three.
City are a team that has been as clinical at beating the teams they should beat in the league as any side ever has. Even if there were potentially easier fixtures they could have had, City couldn’t have asked for a much more manageable run in their remaining three games.
Having extra rest will certainly help too.
City’s biggest potential challenges heading into these final three games looked like it would be fatigue, and the distraction of being in another tournament in between their league fixtures.
Now that they’re out of the UEFA Champions League, and Liverpool aren’t, City will have the advantage of getting several days of rest between games, something that hasn’t been afforded to them all year. This should help the side cope better with any potential fatigue, and will allow Pep Guardiola and his side the ability to focus solely on their remaining league fixtures.
City would have preferred to still be in the UCL and carrying the momentum of wins every three days with them to the finish line (it may be THE reason why they got so hot in the second half of the year while Liverpool struggled in January-March after long lay offs). However, the extra days off could help them regroup.
Liverpool have also defied gravity all season to even remain this close in the title race.
Though Liverpool are certainly an historically great side, their advanced stats are worse than City’s by quite a bit.
Liverpool are 11 points better right now (88) than their expected points total (77). City, by contrast, are 5.53 points better (89) than theirs (83.47). City have been better by almost every metric, including goals for, goal difference, expected goals for, and expected goals conceded. Liverpool have been lucky to even be this close with three games left.
There will be a course correction at some point for Liverpool.
Some have gone a whole season without one. Manchester United did last season, finishing nearly 20 points better (81) than their expected points total (62.33). Chelsea overachieved by 17.26 points (75.74) on their way to a 93 point title winning season in 2016-17. But, it’s rare, and those teams all regressed significantly the following seasons.
Given the grueling ties they face against Barcelona, now would be the time for Liverpool to potentially slip up.
Regardless of what Liverpool do, the title is ultimately Manchester City’s to lose.
It may have taken a historic winning run to get them to these final three games, They may need to tie the second longest winning run in EPL history to finish it off. However, Manchester City couldn’t have asked to be in a better position entering the final three games.
Given their form and their remaining fixtures, Manchester City should win the title. Anything less would be a devastating loss and a black mark on a side that’s been arguably the best in Premier League history. Here’s to hoping they can seal the deal in the coming weeks.