The expected goals scored, conceded and points table show a growing gap between Manchester City and Liverpool.
Unlike earlier in the season, when both sides were relatively even in their advanced stats, a significant gap has grown between Manchester City and Liverpool.
Since the start of the year, City have been utterly dominant in the league. In their 12 Premier leagues game since January 1st, City have gotten 33 out of a possible 36 points. In those games, City have scored 29 goals, while conceding just five.
The expected goals for and against paints them in an even better light. City’s expected goal total during this run is 31.5, while their expected goals against is just 6.56. City’s expected points during this stretch is 30.56, less than three off of their actual total.
By contrast, Liverpool have gotten 25 out of a possible 36 points since the start of the new year. Their expected points total is 25 compared to City’s 30. Liverpool have scored 24 and conceded 11 in their 12 games, and their expected goals for and against of 22.59 and 8.18 are well below City’s as well.
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Of course, it fits conventional wisdom that City have been much better than Liverpool since the start of the new year. Titles are won by your performances over the entirety of the season, not just in a small sample of a 12 games. How do the teams look when we look at all the games played so far?
The answer, is that the gap between the sides becomes even more apparent.
Manchester City’s expected points total over their 32 games this season is 77.25. By contrast. Liverpool’s is just 70.6. City’s expected goals for and against is 82.06 and 22.48, compared to Liverpool’s 66.95 and 24.09. What do these stats mean?
What this shows is that Liverpool have had SIGNIFICANTLY more luck in their results this season than City have.
It’s not that unusual for a title winner to overachieve their expected points total. Chelsea did it by over 17 points in 2016-17.Even Manchester City’s centurion team from last season exceeded their expected results by just under nine points.
However, when the margins are as tight as they are this season, those stats can be a pretty good indicator of who’s playing at a higher level and should be favored to win.