Manchester City to win the Premier League according to simulations

I recently came across an article in which a study from Gracenote Sports was front and center. For those of you who haven’t seen the article it basically had Manchester City finish Champions, with 84 points. The season wrapped up, with at least one game to go. United taking second spot and five points behind with 79 points.

The company analyzes its club index data and then runs season simulations a million times in order to get that final table. Now, it must be said that its pre season running of the simulation had us finishing 2nd, two points behind Chelsea. United finishing 5th was the only smile invoking point of that report.

So, the question is, what changed our finishing place. Has our form been so dramatically different from expectations in the opening seven-league games to have given us those extra eight points? Currently we have, according to the Gracesports, a 47% chance of lifting the trophy in May. They give United only a 24% chance of lifting the trophy, despite only being behind us after scoring one less goal.

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Certainly I think that could be down to the sides played so far. United haven’t played a side, as yet, who currently sit above 12th in the League. City, on the other hand, have played three from the top eight, including the most recent away fixture at Chelsea.

United have also played four of their games at Old Trafford, whereas City have only played three of theirs at the Etihad. The current average position of United’s opposition to date is 16th, City’s 13th. Although, Everton have fallen far since we played them.

Since the last International break, City have been rampant, winning all games in all competitions, while scoring seventeen goals without reply in the four League games. Prior to that we stuttered in the league, not putting sides away, and dropping points.

So what changed? Our goals are shared around and are not reliant on a single player. Our top scorer, Sergio Aguero, was out against Chelsea and we still found a way to win. Statistically, even though he is the top scorer, he has only contributed 27% of our League goals. Sterling has contributed 23% and Jesus 18%. The other 32% is shared by four other players and, of course, that own goal.

United, by comparison, have more scorers but Romelu Lukaku has contributed a third of their total. The next two players, Fellaini and Martial (3 each) have contributed around the same as our fourth top scorer, Leroy Sane.

Assist wise we have a good spread also. Of course, David Silva is top, and has assists in 27% of our goals. Kevin DeBruyne and Aguero both have three assists, 14% each. Five other players share the remaining 44%, including all of our three new signing wing-backs.

While the current form, and distribution of players involved in City goals is quite diverse, there is still a lot of League to play. The simulation, when run at the next International break, could tell a completely different story.

Before our first game at home to Stoke on Saturday 14th we will know Mourinho’s result. United will already have played Liverpool away in the midday kick-off. This, as I said before, will be United’s biggest test so far this season, but not the last before the next break.

From there, and before the next International break, we have the potential to move ahead. The home game against Stoke is followed by a home game against Burnley. Of course, sandwiched in between is the Champions League fixture, home to Napoli. We then face Wolverhampton in the Carabao Cup before an away fixture to West Brom.

Next: DeBruyne battle at the Bridge

Finally on Sunday 5th, after an away trip to Naples, we host Arsenal. In the same time United travel away to Liverpool and Huddersfield. They host Tottenham and are away to Chelsea in the league. This, of course, not including a home and away fixture against Benfica in the Champions League and the Carabao Cup fixture, away to Swansea.

Keep an eye on the Gracenote website, maybe November will be even better reading than October? We can certainly hope.