Manchester City: Believe

Manchester City face a tough test in tonights Champions League Semi-Final at Real Madrid, but Citizens shouldn’t stop dreaming of what lies beyond.

I’m honestly not entirely sure why I’m feeling so nervous right now. It’s probably a match day thing, I did feel rather uneasy, and for good reason too, before the Southampton game on Sunday. Mind you, the two feelings are as incomparable as the two teams Manchester City finds themselves facing. I’d be doing well to name you any of the Southampton team, outside of those guys who kept popping up on the score sheet a few days back, but even Real Madrid’s lesser stars have their own set of merchandise readily available from your local Pound Stretcher. I recommend the Cristiano Ronaldo toilet paper.

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Anyway, here it is. The final countdown. If all this feels familiar then remember it’s not even been a month since we were here before. The quarter-finals against Paris Saint-Germain were equally nerve-wracking and came accompanied by the usual suspects going to great lengths to demonstrate why City hadn’t a hope of making it through to the next round. After all, we have an inferior side and all that.

Actually, there is some truth to what the pundits have to say in many aspects. Statistically the odds are, just as they were against PSG, stacked against Manchester City. For some reason though, this provides a bit more of a comfort than if the roles were reversed. Here are City, the clear underdogs, playing for the first time in the semi-finals of the Champions League against its 10 times winners. The expectation is that Real Madrid will do what they, by and large, have managed to do at the Santiago Bernabeu all year – score a lot, concede very little.

Sure, Real’s expectations are not unjustified. Forget for a second their record in the past, they have a pretty daunting record in the present too. How about not conceding a goal at home in Europe this year? Oh dear. City almost certainly will need to score in this outing, as holding the hosts for 120 minutes seems nigh impossible. Oh and hey, looks like Madrid have only lost twice and drawn once in 18 games at the Bernabeu in La Liga too. Manchester City have lost once away this week alone.

Despite all that, the underdog status plays well for City just like it did against PSG because, in all seriousness, they are actually a very good team. Furthermore, we’ve discussed this prior to the first leg but, Real are imminently beatable. Yes the home advantage is a pretty big deal, what with the 80,000 roaring fans and perennially electric atmosphere. But that all doesn’t change that Real can have an off day.

In their games against Roma and Wolfsburg, both at home, I found the results to be extremely flattering to Real and they rode their luck. They come to the Etihad and didn’t look all that impressive in my eyes, indeed there were many points that it was obvious to me and the rest of the crowd that City could beat them. Ah, you’ll point out that in Manchester they were without Ronaldo, but he’s also prone to just not turning up and found himself on the receiving end of a home town booing earlier in the season from his own fans for it.

Speaking of Ronaldo, he was recently injured and there’s reason to suggest he may not still be firing on all cylinders. His record post-injury isn’t quite up to speed with his normal form and to even play him tonight shows the levels of concern in Real manager Zidane’s eyes perhaps match our own. Even better than that are that City won’t have to face Karim Benzema and Casemiro. Benzema is a threat, regardless of not shining quite as brightly as Ronaldo and Gareth Bale.

As for Casemiro, well, it’s difficult to suggest that he hasn’t been in many ways clinical to Madrid’s success, perhaps more so than any other player. He’s their one, true defensive midfielder. Like Fernando on steroids. He’s so good that he covers for the less defensively minded Toni Kroos and Luka Modric on his own, allowing them to assault the opponents back four. He’s a big miss in a Real line-up which has already more questions at the back than the front.

How will Manuel Pellegrini choose to abuse this, if he does at all? Well the option for Yaya Toure is available, but doing so pushes Kevin De Bruyne out wide and slows down the chance to hit Real on the break. It’s a tough call to make, but it’s likely in my mind that, without David Silva, Pellegrini will opt for Raheem Sterling and Jesus Navas on the wings with De Bruyne nestling in behind Sergio Aguero.

Sterling has been, well, dire lately. His inability to keep possession, create chances, score chances or contribute in just about any meaningful way had a large hand in Manchester City’s humbling by Southampton. Even so the one thing the kid, hopefully, still has, is pace. Navas was never great with his final touch, but he’s as quick as get-out. Real will come out differently from at the Etihad, with the home support roaring them on they will go on the offensive. It’s up to City to absorb that and hit back.

Next: Manchester City - Disappointing but Predictable

Even so, Madrid are still the favourites here. I know it, you know it. There’s just no escaping it. But you know? It’s a funny old game and sometimes it just doesn’t go according to plan. With two games (two games!) sitting between our wee team and the top of the world, it’s impossible not to dream about what can only happen once in a blue moon.