Manchester City: Pellegrini’s Champions League Gamble

NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE, ENGLAND - APRIL 19: Raheem Sterling of Manchester City is challenged by Jack Colback of Newcastle United during the Barclays Premier League match between Newcastle United and Manchester City at St James' Park on April 19, 2016 in Newcastle, England. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE, ENGLAND - APRIL 19: Raheem Sterling of Manchester City is challenged by Jack Colback of Newcastle United during the Barclays Premier League match between Newcastle United and Manchester City at St James' Park on April 19, 2016 in Newcastle, England. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Manchester City manager-for-now-at-least Manuel Pellegrini must be starting to believe getting players off the injury list is like waiting for buses, assuming he’s done that at some point in his life. You wait forever for just one and a whole bunch come at once leaving you spoilt for choice. Life rarely provides the happy medium.

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So it is that the Argentinian was gifted two key players, Vincent Kompany and Raheem Sterling, back to fitness a mere week before City’s biggest game of the year. Someone must be smiling down on poor old Manuel, still suffering from having his successor announced so early in the year, and providing him with every opportunity to overcome the relentless onslaught of Real Madrid in the Champions League semi-final. Or are they?

It’s hard to suggest things went exactly to plan as Kompany started and Sterling was thrown on, at the traditional Pellegrini 60th minute substitution slot, against Newcastle United yesterday. Kompany looked shaky, a fine save from Joe Hart saved his blushes and he had little else but a yellow card to show for the outing, and Sterling may as well have been back in the treatment room. At best anonymous, at worst lacking.

Now Pellegrini faces a dilemma. The plan was perfect! Kompany’s impact on our defense is so profound we half as many goals per game with him there as not, who better to blunt Christiano Ronaldo’s potentially devastating offensive threat than him? As for Sterling, well, as we discussed previously, Manchester City will likely find their best chances come from hitting Real on the break and Sterling’s pace and creativity is likely to be invaluable. What better way to showcase this by having them run amok at Newcastle, a team they have beaten in their last 12 consecutive outings?

Except it didn’t happen at all. Newcastle were hungry for points and City, likely with an eye to Europe, seemed somewhat tamed in comparison to their 3-0 unhinging of champions Chelsea earlier in the week. What does Pellegrini do now? Roll the dice with Kompany and Sterling or stick with arguably more reliable, if perhaps not as potentially capable, choices such as Nicolas Otamendi or Yaya Toure?

I’d imagine, first of all, we’ll be seeing both out against Stoke City this weekend. Pellegrini’s tenacity, evidenced by his continued refusal to include Samir Nasri in the European squad, leaves him unlikely to change course quite so easily. Hopefully, Pellegrini must be thinking, Newcastle was a warmup and it’ll just take time to get them back to full form.

The problem with treating Newcastle, and potentially Stoke too, as training matches is that City’s already tenuous position in the top four looks even less stable as a result. Two lost points from the Newcastle game wipe away the small buffer we held over Manchester United for the spot and, I can’t emphasise this enough, Champions League football next year is probably the most important thing for City obtain. Ok, so if they win the Champions League, there’s that way too, but, well, it’s safer just to go ahead and get it from being in the top four, don’t you think?

Likely bet is that Pellegrini will start Kompany and Eliaquim Mangala against Real, sticking Otamendi on the bench. Mangala, normally the defensive equivalent of a chocolate teapot, has greatly improved of late and shown he is capable of living up to his obscene price tag. Sure, he’s still getting away with some sketchy tackles in dangerous areas, but think about where he was a month ago – a sure fire summer trade and as big a liability in the back four than you or I would be.

As for Sterling, it’s probably still Manchester City’s best bet to bottle up and hit hard on the break. Sterling, thusly, is still Pellegrini’s best option for the role alongside a red hot Kevin De Bruyne and a hungry Sergio Aguero. Jesus Navas may not have much of a final touch, but his speed is undeniable too. It’s a roll of the dice but ultimately a fairly safe one.

Kompany, strange as it may seem, presents perhaps far more of a risky gamble than Sterling does. Defensive errors will be costly, unlike the plethora thereof that were available from both sides in the PSG game. Playing Kompany shows, for better or worse, Pellegrini’s absolute confidence in his skipper even if he really didn’t look himself last night.

Either which way, Manchester City have to come out with all guns blazing. What have they to lose after all? Perhaps someone is smiling down on our wee team after all.