Why Manchester City Should Win the Premier League Title

Liverpool have also the beneficiaries of of some horrible officiating.

In their game at West Ham back in February, their go ahead goal should have been disallowed. The side judge completely missed that James Milner was several yards off-side during the build-up to their goal. Liverpool then, in the final moment of the game, nearly snagged the three points on an even more egregious missed off-side call.

What’s ironic about these games, however, is that, absent West Ham, Liverpool’s performances were better than their opponents in the advanced stats. In the end, they got the result that the advanced stats suggested they deserved in all five games.

However, it’s taken an incredible amount of luck to make that happen, and Liverpool have often won other games where the advanced stats suggested they should have dropped points. Dropping points in these games would have meant a regression to the points total they’re expected to have based on their performances.

Manchester City, by contrast, have been on the receiving end of goals like this:

And this:

Both completely changed the complexion of those matches. Manchester City would go on to lose both.

This isn’t to say that City haven’t been lucky themselves this season.

City benefited from two horrible missed calls to beat Swansea in the Quarterfinal of the FA Cup. They survived a League Cup final where they were arguably outplayed by Chelsea. They’ve largely benefited from easy draws in their domestic cups, while their closest competitors all bowed out in the early rounds. Luck is big part of football.

However, when it comes to the league season, Liverpool have had far greater luck than City have.