Why Manchester City Should Win the Premier League Title

The difference in luck between City and Liverpool in the league is apparent when looking at some of their results.

Given that the advanced stats suggest Liverpool have been a bit luckier than City, it’s worth analyzing some of the games where their luck has come into play.

Though some of their wins have ended up in line with their expected results, Liverpool have been extremely lucky on several occasions as Unibet’s Stephen Tudor highlights here.

Liverpool have had the benefit of four atrocious goal keeping mistakes that saved them from dropping points this season. The first major one was in their game against Everton at Anfield in December.

Liverpool had beaten the snot out of Everton, but were unable to find the goal that would have put them ahead. It looked as if, with seconds remaining in added time, that they would drop points. Then, the unthinkable happened.

Everton keeper Jordan Pickford failed to put a shanked shot by Virgil Van Dijk out of play, hitting the goalpost with his hands and missing the ball entirely. That hit to the post caused the ball to come back into the field of play, enabling Divock Origi to head the ball in for a winner at the death.

Liverpool would benefit from similar luck in their game on January 19th at home against Crystal Palace.

Like the Everton game, Liverpool should have been winning the game, but found themselves in a 2-2 tie with just minutes remaining. Then, Palace keeper Julian Speroni made a horrible mistake, punching the ball back towards his own net. Mohamed Salah would get on the end of it, and score a goal to put Liverpool up 3-2. They won 4-3. You can see the goal starting at the 53 second mark:

The third mistake that Liverpool would benefit from came just before the international break on the road against Fulham.

Liverpool were once again on the verge of dropping points in a shocking way to relegated Fulham. Then, Fulham keeper Sergio Rico gave away a horrible penalty after he failed to hold on to a cross from Salah. James Milner finished the resulting penalty, and Liverpool escaped with the three points. You can see penalty at 5:39 in the video below.

Then there was the final instance this past weekend against Tottenham Hotspur.

Liverpool had dominated the first half on their way to a 1-0 lead at Anfield. However, Spurs responded strongly in the second half, and were able to work their way into an equalizer with just over 20 minutes remaining. Spurs would later get a counter attack where they had a two-on-one advantage, but midfielder Moussa Sissoko would fluff his lines and fail to hit the target.

Liverpool would get a corner in the 90th minute, where Spurs keeper Hugo Lloris was unable to clear the ball on a Salah header. The ball would hit defender Toby Alderweireld on the foot and deflect in for the winning goal. You can see that goal starting at 8:43.